December football is in full swing, and the race to the playoffs has started to heat up. This is the most wonderful time of the year for more reasons than one — it makes for better football and better opportunities on the player prop betting market. Today, as we do each week, our SN Bets’ experts will unveil our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for the upcoming weekend of NFL football.
Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff join me to scour SuperDraft and pinpoint the over/under props that we believe yield the most value. We then provide detailed explanations as to why those props give us the greatest chance of winning.
Each of us typically unveils three over/under props per week — at least a dozen total — from the vast main-slate offerings on SuperDraft. The concept for the column is simple: we research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.
Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our weekly successes and failures — and of course, we reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make to help with Christmas gift shopping!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Take a look at the updated standings after Week 13 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
Vinnie has now gone 16-5 over the past five weeks — you know the man’s sizzling when he’s beating Elijah Moore receiving-yard overs by 50 yards. Muse and I also had respectable weeks, although Zack Moss’s underwhelming performance against Tennessee and Rhamondre Stevenson’s unfortunate knee injury kept us well behind Vinnie Victory.
As for Brinks (or should we say “Ice Brinks”?), his win-loss record on the season now sits at an unfathomable 14 below .500. The question has now become “How far will this plummeting meteor of mediocrity fall?” We hate to make our dear intern a punching bag, but we also strongly recommend approaching this poor dude’s unlucky streak with caution.
One thing’s for certain: our panel of experts is much better than our overall record suggests. So, let’s lock in some winners and capitalize on teams cranking up the volume during the home stretch. If you’re not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD’s Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But obviously, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That’s where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we’ll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let’s get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend’s NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, happy holidays, and enjoy what should be an entertaining and lucrative Week 14!
NFL Prop Picks Week 14: Our experts’ favorite SuperDraft bets
Chris Olave, WR, Saints vs. Panthers — OVER 68.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Olave is finally hot with Derek Carr as his starting QB. He also fell just short of 100 yards (86) in the Saints’ first matchup in Carolina all the way back in Week 2. Olave has posted receiving yardage totals of 119 and 114 in New Orleans’ past two games. Carr (concussion) might not go against the Panthers, but Olave at this modest total still yields plenty of upside with the gun-slinging Jameis Winston.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions at Bears — OVER 73.5 rushing + receiving yards (Sloan Piva)
We’re not reading too much into Gibbs seeing just 10 touches against the Saints last week, especially considering the rookie averaged 7.5 yards per carry while veteran David Montgomery managed just 3.1 YPC (Gibbs finished with four more rushing yards on the day despite garnering 10 fewer attempts than his counterpart).
Both backs should be busy throughout the day against the Bears, who have allowed an NFL-high 59.4 receiving yards to RBs this season. When Detroit and Chicago last met on Nov. 19, Gibbs had 59 receiving yards, 36 rushing yards, and a TD. Don’t be surprised if the rook comes close to duplicating that 95-yard performance this weekend.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals vs. Colts — OVER 36.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)
With Higgins’ receiving yardage prop at its low point this season, we’ll buy low on Cincinnati’s WR2 totaling 37-plus receiving yards. Jake Browning just torched a steady Jaguars pass defense for 354 yards — and with his confidence rising and the Bengals playoff hopes not totally washed yet, we expect another efficient outing from the former Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year. Before Higgins’ 36-yard performance in Week 13, he racked up receiving-yard totals of 69 and 110 in his two previous games. We’re counting on Tee getting back on track.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons @ Jets — OVER 59.5 rushing yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
The Cowboys’ high-octane passing attack continues to shine, lighting up the sky of whatever city is graced with their presence each week. But every Batman needs a Robin, and that’s the type of dynamic we’re seeing with wideout CeeDee Lamb and tight end Ferguson this season.
Ferguson has emerged nicely in his sophomore season, and the TE gets a dream matchup once again this week. Don’t let the fact that he’s only cleared this line twice in the past five games fool you — Ferguson’s in for a big day. And history is on our side, after he totaled 91 yards and a touchdown while hauling in 7-of-10 targets against this same Eagles team back in Week 9.
Tight ends have gone over this line against Philly in four of its past five contests, a notable blemish for a struggling pass defense. Fergie will have the Eagles’ defenders slippin’ and stumblin’ as we fall in love with this pick.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals vs. Colts — OVER 67.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Chase has dominated Cincinnati’s target share with Jake Browning under center, which is not unexpected for a young, inexperienced quarterback leaning on the clear go-to guy. Chase is getting open everywhere both short and long, and the Colts’ cornerbacks are vulnerable to an elite No. 1 of his all-around skill set. This game feels like a sneaky shootout with a possible negative game script, a situation in which Chase rarely disappoints.
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals vs. Colts — OVER 62.5 rushing yards (Piva)
With Jake Browning under center, the Bengals have been even more reliant on their veteran running back than usual. Mixon finished a massive Week 13 victory over the Jaguars with 117 all-purpose yards and two TDs. Now he draws a home game against a Colts D that has surrendered over 105 rushing yards per game to RBs, fifth-most in the NFL. Mixon has logged 68-plus yards in two of the past three weeks — and he has bested 62 in six of 12 games on the season. This seems like an easy OVER for us.
Davante Adams, WR, Raiders vs. Vikings — OVER 69.5 receiving yards (Musial)
Adams’ rapport with rookie Aidan O’Connell has strengthened by the week, as Las Vegas’s go-to wideout has started producing at the level we’ve been accustomed to. Adams has gone OVER this number in three straight games despite catching just 18-of-33 targets during that span. If Adams can receive double-digit targets for the third time in four games, he’ll likely total 70-plus receiving yards for a third straight game.
Justin Fields, QB, Bears vs. Lions — OVER 60.5 rushing yards (Brinkerhoff)
Since returning from injury, we’ve begun to see the Fields of old pop up more and more. He’s run the ball 30 times in two weeks, including 18 times against the Lions for 104 yards in Week 11. Chicago’s QB has reverted back to a run-first style in the wake of the thumb injury that forced him to miss time earlier this season. As a result, the passing numbers have dropped significantly from what we saw prior to his absence.
As if that wasn’t good enough, Fields is averaging a whopping 127.7 rushing yards against the Lions in their last three meetings. Detroit’s defense has taken a step back as the season has gone on, something Fields is more than capable of exploiting. He should clear this line with ease and could threaten to hit the century mark again.
Zack Moss, RB, Colts @ Bengals — OVER 72.5 rushing yards (Iyer)
Moss didn’t gather enough rushing yards against the Titans, but they also tightened the screws with a tough run defense after springing some leaks early vs. Moss and other backs before Week 13. The Bengals’ run defense is very giving and Moss should be pounded well between the tackles with much better results as a workhorse with another week of no Jonathan Taylor.
Jerome Ford, RB, Browns vs. Jaguars — OVER 45.5 rushing yards (Piva)
Ford had a frustrating Week 13, turning nine carries into just 19 yards against an underrated Rams run D. But the young back still made quite the impact, catching three passes for 33 yards and a score. We like Ford to run tough again at home against a beatable Jacksonville rushing defense that just surrendered 156 rushing yards to the Bengals last week. Joe Flacco brings veteran game-management skills to this Cleveland team, but the running game remains its core identity. Bet on Ford with volume against a banged-up Jags team that will struggle to win the time of possession battle.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins vs. Titans — OVER 66.5 receiving yards (Musial)
Waddle draws a mouthwatering matchup against a Titans defense ranking 29th in dropback success rate (4.5%) that’s fresh off allowing two Colts WRs (Michael Pittman Jr., and Alec Pierce) to reach the century mark in Week 13. Although we expect the Dolphins offense to dominate the time of possession en route to scoring 30-plus points for a third straight game, Waddle may only need three or four receptions to reach this number given his elite YAC abilities (284 YAC). Betting on Waddle’s running mate, Tyreek Hill, is never a bad move, but we see more wiggle room with Waddle’s 66.5 yard total opposed to Hill’s 106.5 yard total.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers vs. Seahawks — OVER 51.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
It’s officially Deebo’s time of year. The receiver that doubles as a running back down the stretch almost always seems to step it up as the games take on heightened importance. Combine that with the division rival Seahawks being on the other side and we have a recipe for success. Samuel is a Seahawks-killer, averaging 98.6 receiving yards against them in five career games, including a 79 yard performance on Thanksgiving a few weeks ago. This is a number that Samuel has cleared in three straight and the matchup couldn’t be better. This one’s a layup.