Home » NFL Super Bowl Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

NFL Super Bowl Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board — one side, one total, and one player prop. They’ll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they’re on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire’s player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Super Bowl LVIII

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-105)

I’ve got a bump for the Chiefs in my model to account for the improvements they’ve shown in the playoffs. Even with that, I can’t get my model under a field goal, so laying -105 on -2.5 is pretty attractive. I despise having to bet against Patrick Mahomes, and it does feel odd to ride with a team quarterbacked by Brock Purdy over him. But this 49ers offense has been a juggernaut all year long, and they’ve still had decent efficiency marks in the playoffs despite some bumps along the way. It’ll be a “hold onto your butts” situation every time Mahomes is on the field, but I do feel the 49ers are the proper side here.

Total: Over 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 40-Plus Receiving Yards (+235)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: San Francisco 49ers ML (-130)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

The under is the best standard market wager in the game. Along with recency bias to last year’s 73-point explosion that also featured the Chiefs, this matchup is geared that way, as well. Kansas City’s defense is the fourth-best in the NFL, per numberFire’s schedule-adjusted rankings. They were 5-11-1 to the under in the regular season and have hit two of three in the playoffs. San Francisco’s 11th-ranked unit might be undervalued at this stage against a K.C. offense that hasn’t quite churned at the same rate as previously in the Mahomes era. I think defense rules the day, so beware of parlaying a ton of touchdown props, too.

Player Prop: Travis Kelce Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-105)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Noah Gray Anytime Touchdown (+950)

Noah Gray has played at least 47% of the snaps in five straight. In the past two weeks, he’s logged snap rates of 58% and 60% while garnering eight total targets. In short, he’s been out there a good amount and is seeing looks. Plus, we know KC coach Andy Reid doesn’t mind getting weird near the end zone. All in all, I think +950 is a bit too big of a number for a player with Gray’s role. I also don’t hate Gray to be the first (+4700) or last (+3700) TD scorer.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: San Francisco -2.5 (-105)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+185)

When it comes to Kittle, he had a 20.2% target share and 18.1% red zone target share in the regular season, both of which were the third-highest on the team. In the playoffs, Kittle has a 15.2% target share and a 0.0% red zone target share. At +185, Kittle’s odds are too high considering how involved he was in the 49ers’ red zone offense during the regular season.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Kansas City Chiefs ML (+110)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Pacheco has cleared this mark in all three playoff games, and dating back to the regular season, he’s exceeded it in six of the last eight. He’s logged 24, 15, and 24 carries in the postseason, and there’s little reason to think he won’t see similar usage against a defense that ranks 19th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire. Our projections have Pacheco going for 74.5 rushing yards, further backing the over.

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs ML (+110)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Brock Purdy Interception – Yes (-132)

I’ll fade last year’s Mr. Irrelevant in the biggest game of his career. Brock Purdy threw a pick last week, though that was just his 12th of the year. Still, 10 of his 11 regular season interceptions came in games where San Fran failed to score 30 points — a total KC’s second-ranked pass defense has yet to give up this season. The Chiefs haven’t forced a ton of turnovers this season, but they picked off both Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa this postseason. This prop lines up well with my expectation that KC wins a low-scoring game.

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs ML (+110)

Total: Over 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Marquez Valdes-Scantling Anytime Touchdown (+550)

The Chiefs know how to get creative on offense. In Super Bowl LVII, Sky Moore emerged as the underdog touchdown scorer for this team, and perhaps Marquez Valdes-Scantling can cap off his redemption arc by reaching the end zone in this year’s Big Game. During these playoffs, MVS is running 67.6% of routes (third-most, behind Kelce and Rice) and is seeing 1.7 downfield targets each game (second-most, behind Kelce). The Niners will fight tooth and nail to limit Kelce this Sunday. Mahomes seems to always have room in the pocket, and a covered Kelce could lead to intriguing deep-field targets for MVS.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs ML (+110)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Brock Purdy Under 246.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The 49ers will likely come out with a run-heavy game plan, as it’s both their strength and the way to beat the Chiefs’ defense. Purdy hasn’t had any huge passing games since Week 14 and only had 267 yards in a comeback game script against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game. That was against a Lions pass defense that ranks 30th in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted pass defense metric. Now, he’ll face a stellar KC pass defense, and it’s unlikely the game gets too out of hand for the Niners where they will need to be throwing more than they normally do.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-105)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Brock Purdy Under 30.5 Passing Attempts (-124)

The 49ers would be wise to avoid the Ravens’ mistakes against the Chiefs. Baltimore refused to run the ball at times, finishing with only 16 rushing attempts. This proved to be a fatal mistake as Kansas City touts numberFire’s second-best schedule-adjusted passing defense. I don’t see San Francisco making the same mistake as they average the sixth-most carries per game. This could be a heavy dose for Christian McCaffrey and the run game with the Chiefs holding numberFire’s fifth-worst run defense. Of course, this could mean fewer passing attempts for Brock Purdy. I like Purdy to go under 30.5 passing attempts.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs ML (+110)

Total: Over 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Brock Purdy Under 30.5 Passing Attempts (-124)

This year’s Super Bowl is shaping up to be a game where the 49ers lean on their ground game more than putting the majority of the offense on Brock Purdy’s shoulders. Entering Sunday’s season-finale, the Chiefs boast the second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense and the fifth-worst run defense, according to numberFire’s metrics. With Christian McCaffrey leading the charge in San Fran’s backfield, Kyle Shanahan won’t ask Purdy to air the ball often. Even when the 49ers do elect to pass, they’re more reliant on generating explosive plays rather than moving the ball methodically, which is indicated in Purdy having the fifth-most passing yards (4,799) on the 16th-most passing attempts (514) among quarterbacks. Lastly, Purdy has thrown the ball more than 31 times in only three of his 18 games this season, making the under of 30.5 passing attempts in the Super Bowl an enticing bet.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs ML (+110)

Total: Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This is going to be a Christian McCaffrey game for the 49ers offense — win or lose. The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run. Per numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics, the Chiefs ranked 28th this season, and that’s great news for CMC and San Francisco. Through the first two games in the playoffs, McCaffrey finished with 90 and 98 rushing yards. Overall on the season, he averaged 91.5 rushing yards per game. He’s got everything on his side in this game that hitting the over feels likely. They’re going to focus on the ground game to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. It should work out for the offense that has run through McCaffrey all year.

Speaking of picks for Sunday, don’t forget to make your pick on FanDuel Sportsbook for Rob Gronkowski’s Kick of Destiny 2. $10 million in bonus bets will be split between bettors who correctly predict if he makes or misses his kick, so get your pick in today and tune in before the Super Bowl to see if you’re correct!

Interested in more NFL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.