Tyler Higbee has failed to record a reception of at least 14 yards in six of his last 11 games. When the trio of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are all active, Higbee has stayed under this line in four of six games.
With the Rams passing attack being fully healthy today and facing a stout Browns defense, I’m loving the under on this prop.
Cleveland’s pass defense is first overall in DVOA and also is first against tight ends, per FTN Fantasy. The Browns are also generating pressure on the quarterback at the highest rate in the NFL, so Higbee may need to chip edge rushers before he runs his routes.
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Overall, the Browns have only allowed three tight ends to clear this line in their 11 games, and two of those were the Ravens’ Mark Andrews.
Since Kupp’s return in Week 5 from a preseason injury, Higbee’s Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is 6.3 yards, per Pro Football Focus. In that same span, only four of his 24 targets have traveled at least 14 air yards.
In what should be a difficult matchup for Higbee and the Rams, I have the tight end’s longest reception projected closer to 12 yards.
Pick: Tyler Higbee Longest Reception Under 13.5 Yards (-120 | Play to -140 at bet365)
Steady rain is in the forecast throughout the Chargers vs. Patriots matchup in Foxborough, which should make passing the ball challenging.
The Patriots’ passing offense has been horrific, and Bill Belichick is expected to name Bailey Zappe the starter after a string of poor performances from Mac Jones.
No matter who is taking the snaps, Rhamondre Stevenson will lead a rushing attack against a Chargers run defense that ranks 26th in DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
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Stevenson is coming off of consecutive games with at least 20 rush attempts. He’s been one of the few bright spots for this Patriots offense over the last six games while averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
The rain should impede the Chargers’ aerial attack, meaning the LA’s 23rd-ranked rush offense will have to go to work against the Patriots’ fifth-best rushing defense (both in terms of DVOA, per FTN Fantasy). I’m expecting this to help keep the game close for the Patriots as they utilize Stevenson on the ground.
I have the third-year pro projected at 16 attempts today and would play this line to -150.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-130 | Play to -150 at DraftKings)
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