Just seven years after the Kansas City Chiefs drafted him in the first round, Patrick Mahomes is already making his case as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. And his resume in the Super Bowl alone might be enough to land him in the Hall of Fame.
In 2020, Mahomes led Kansas City to a comeback win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, when he won his first of two Super Bowl MVP trophies. The second came last year, when the Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in one of the highest-scoring games in Super Bowl betting history.
Kansas City is the underdog by our Super Bowl odds to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 New England Patriots, though Mahomes is the clear favorite by our Super Bowl MVP odds to win the coveted award for a third time. That win would tie Joe Montana for the second-most all-time behind Tom Brady (five).
In addition to our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, we’re ranking Mahomes’ best Super Bowl performances and making our predictions for his stat line on Sunday with the best NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites.
Patrick Mahomes’ best Super Bowl appearances
1) Super Bowl LVII vs. Eagles (Feb. 12, 2023)
It doesn’t get much better than what we saw from Mahomes in last year’s Super Bowl, when he completed 21 of 27 passes for 182 yards and three TDs in his team’s 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Mahomes finished with his fewest passing yards in a Super Bowl start, but he didn’t throw an interception for the first time in his three appearances. He also added 44 yards on the ground, including a critical 26-yard scramble on the Chiefs’ final drive to set up the game-winning field goal.
He did all of that just a few weeks removed from suffering a high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round, which made this stat line all the more impressive. It also begs the question of just how prolific Mahomes can be on this stage, at this point in his career, with a clean bill of health.
2) Super Bowl LIV vs. 49ers (Feb. 2, 2020)
There’s no time quite like the first time, and Mahomes gave us a Super Bowl performance to remember in his debut title appearance in 2020.
With his team trailing by 10 points late in the fourth quarter, Mahomes led the Chiefs on three touchdown drives in five minutes to secure the first Lombardi Trophy of his career. He also finished with his most combined yards (315) and touchdowns (three) in the Super Bowl, though he also tied his playoff high with two interceptions.
Perhaps the most notable memory for some bettors was Mahomes plunging into the end zone with 31 seconds left in the first quarter to score the game’s first touchdown. He’s currently dealing as high as +2500 via bet365 to be the first touchdown scorer of Super Bowl 58.
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3) Super Bowl LV vs. Buccaneers (Feb. 7, 2021)
If you’re telling the story of Mahomes’ career in the Super Bowl, you have to include his lone loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021. And the results weren’t pretty.
Sure, he still threw for 270 yards while completing 26 of 49 attempts, but he finished with zero touchdowns and multiple interceptions for the only time in his postseason career. That was largely an issue of pass protection, as Mahomes was running for his life all night long against the Buccaneers’ blitz-happy front.
If you think he’ll have another clunker in Super Bowl 58, you can fetch a nice price on both zero touchdowns (+600 via BetMGM) and multiple interceptions (+425 via bet365). Keep in mind, though, that this Chiefs offensive line is much improved from the one that allowed three sacks and nine QB hits in Super Bowl LV.
Super Bowl 2024 odds, Patrick Mahomes projections vs. 49ers
In his three Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes is averaging 246 passing yards with a combined six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) and four interceptions.
Those numbers are actually below his career playoff averages of 282.2 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game, while four of his seven postseason interceptions have come in the Super Bowl. Could we see a repeat of any of those previous three performances in Super Bowl 2024?
Here’s a look at Mahomes’ career averages in the Super Bowl, as well as his best Over/Under odds for Sunday’s game against the 49ers. We’ve also listed the implied probability for each side using our odds converter.
Patrick Mahomes projections for Chiefs vs. 49ers
Patrick Mahomes predictions for Super Bowl 58
On paper, this is the worst offense of the Mahomes era, and that was plain to see for much of the 2023 NFL regular season.
Kansas City ranked outside of the top 10 in scoring for the first time in the Mahomes era, and the two-time MVP finished with his fewest passing yards per game (261.4) and touchdowns per game (1.7) in his six years as a starter. The biggest culprit has been an inconsistent receiving corps and a down year from star tight end Travis Kelce, who fell short of 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015.
It’s been a different story this postseason, though. While Mahomes’ box-score stats haven’t been overwhelming, he’s averaged nearly 240 yards with a 68% completion rate and a flawless 4-to-0 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s also posted zero turnover-worthy plays despite taking more passing snaps than anyone.
Now he faces a 49ers defense that has struggled down the stretch – ranking 28th in PFF grade since Week 15 – and let Jared Goff throw for 273 yards and a score in the NFC Championship. San Francisco also struggled to contain Mahomes in their 2020 title clash and is worse defensively despite retaining many of the same core players.
We’re yet to see a truly spectacular showing from Mahomes in the Super Bowl, at least from a purely statistical perspective. And it feels like the stars are aligning for him to deliver a signature performance on Sunday.
Our Super Bowl passing props have a couple more positive predictions for Mahomes on Sunday.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
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