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Suns vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight – NBA

The Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns have had rollercoaster seasons. Both came in as inner-circle contenders in the West, but injuries for Phoenix delayed their steady rise through the standings until recently. 

The Warriors have had injuries of their own and a plethora of franchise-shaking disturbances by Draymond Green, but at long last seem to be stabilizing into the best version of themselves. With Kevin Durant and Steph Curry still at the height of their powers, this matchup on Saturday, February 10 is a can’t-miss affair.

With my NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Warriors, I’m finding the NBA odds are undervaluing Draymond’s rebounding abilities.

Suns vs Warriors odds

Suns vs Warriors predictions

While Steph Curry will always be synonymous with this era of Golden State Warriors basketball, for better and for worse, the Warriors dynasty has also been defined by Draymond Green.

Green is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, an All-World defender, and an outrageous playmaker for his position. He’s also capable of totally torpedoing an otherwise promising season with his clashes on and off the court. 

The Warriors’ season seemed sunk when he was suspended indefinitely after a rash of violent on-court acts. But now that he’s ramped up and working as the Warriors’ starting center and sole big, Golden State has a dangerous look for the first time since their 2022 championship run.

The Warriors have consistently been one of the Association’s best on the glass despite their diminutive size. A lot of that comes back to Draymond, who perhaps plays bigger than his size better than anyone in NBA history.

Draymond is just 6-foot-6. That’s the same height as Klay Thompson, who plays shooting guard almost exclusively.

And yet Green is regularly matched up with opponents 6-foot-10 and above and not giving them an inch. His incredible wingspan helps of course, but so much of his success is his combination of toughness and a high feel for the game. 

He’s a play reader and defensive organizer, he points his teammates to the spots they need to occupy on the court, and he limits opposing teams to one possession on offense.

While Draymond’s individual rebounding stats don’t stand out compared to true centers, for his size he does outstanding work on the glass. 

The Phoenix Suns are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams this season. Jusuf Nurkic is just middling on the defensive glass, and the rest of the squad is allergic to boxing out. They rank just 21st in defensive rebounding rate per Cleaning the Glass.

Yet oddsmakers have set these Draymond Green odds puzzlingly low. Green is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game on the season and 8.4 over his last five.

He’s also had six or more in seven straight games. And yet this line is being offered at just 5.5, with not nearly enough juice to make it anything less than a strong expected value bet.

My best bet: Draymond Green Over 5.5 rebounds (-135 at DraftKings)

Suns vs Warriors same-game parlay

Draymond Green Over 5.5 rebounds

Draymond Green Over 6.5 points

Jusuf Nurkic Under 0.5 threes

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Draymond is a wonderful offensive player, but he’s almost a totally dependent scorer. When the Warriors’ offense is flowing and Steph or Klay have it going, he’s a real threat with the ball. He’s a practiced master of picking his spots and slicing to the basket for an open layup as opposing teams reflexively overload to Golden State’s shooters. 

The Warriors’ offense is in one such groove right now, so I’m comfortable taking the Over on Draymond’s scoring as the second leg of my same-game parlay. Green’s scored seven or more points in eight of his last 10 outings as well.

Nurkic has done yeoman’s work as the starting center for Phoenix this season and in part that’s been about the things that he’s not doing as much as what the things he is. One thing he’s done is largely cut out low-value shots, which for him, include 3-pointers. The “Bosnian Beast” is only a 28.2% 3-point shooter, and he’s shooting worse than that this season on limited attempts.

In the last 14 games, Nurkic has taken only six threes. He’s 0-6. Nurkic taking a three when all the Suns’ best options playing well as they are now is a failure for the Suns’ offense. I expect Nurkic to keep reining in these low-value looks on Saturday.

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Suns vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Suns opened between -0.5 and -1 point favorites for Saturday’s tilt against Golden State, and early action has pushed that to as high as -2 at some sportsbooks.

Over the past two weeks, these have been two of the best teams in the Association. Per Cleaning the Glass the Warriors have a +8.2 point differential, the Suns +8.3. The Warriors have been elite defensively and solid on offense, while the Suns have been scorching teams on offense and getting by well enough on defense. 

Steve Kerr has received a lot of criticism for his rotations, but to his credit, he seems to have found the right mix now. Empowering Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, removing Klay from a guaranteed closing lineup spot, and minimizing the role of Kevon Looney while maximizing Green are all paying big dividends. 

They’ve never had an athlete like Kuminga, while Podziemski is the kind of big wing rebounder and playmaker they’ve been sorely missing since the departure of Andre Iguodala. Golden State has outperformed the spread by an average of 10.4 points over the past two weeks, the best mark in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass. 

Golden State is coming home after a 4-1 road trip, including back-to-back blowout wins over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Indiana Pacers. The Suns have a series of strong wins as well, are also riding a three-game winning streak, and are winners of five of their last six.

While a few oddsmakers opened with a total slightly below 240.5, that’s the price being offered virtually everywhere at time of writing.

Phoenix is knocking on the door of a Top-5 ranked offense on the season and has played at an even higher level recently. The trio of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal are a nightmare to guard, and unless the Warriors get strong defensive outings from Andrew Wiggins and Kuminga, the Suns could run up the score in this one.

The Warriors’ most recent game against the Indiana Pacers was perhaps instructive. Golden State played against a quality team and controlled the game from beginning to end. In limiting Indiana to 109 points, it showed levels of connectivity on defense that could translate to the matchup against the Suns.

But the isolation scoring of Phoenix isn’t the same as the collective buzzsaw of the Pacers. I think Phoenix should find success creating and pressing advantages on offense. The Warriors’ offense has been lights-out recently as well, particularly Steph’s, and the Over is 17-9 in the Warriors’ last 26 home games.

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Suns vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Over is 17-9 in the Warriors’ last 26 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Warriors.

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Suns vs Warriors game info

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date: Saturday, February 10, 2024
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: BSAZ, NBCS-BA

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