In no surprise, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favourite with NFL betting sites to win Super Bowl 58 MVP.
The 28-year-old is already a two-time winner of the Pete Rozelle Trophy, claiming the prize following the Chiefs’ victories in Super Bowl 54 and 57.
A third triumph would put Mahomes level with Joe Montana for the second-most MVP awards in the history of the Super Bowl, although he would still trail Tom Brady by two.
To claim the MVP award, Mahomes and the Chiefs will have to overcome the San Francisco 49ers, who have several players that are also strong contenders for the prize.
Only one player in Super Bowl history has won the MVP award while being on the losing side, which came in Super Bowl 5 through Chuck Howley’s exploits for the Dallas Cowboys in their defeat to the Baltimore Colts.
Here are the top contenders in the Super Bowl odds to win the Pete Rozelle Trophy in Super Bowl 58.
Mahomes the favourite
Mahomes is quite rightly the favourite with betting sites to win the award. The 28-year-old is the best player in the NFL and a third Super Bowl title and MVP would further press his case to challenge Brady’s GOAT status.
Mahomes and the Chiefs still have to beat the 49ers, and that will be no mean feat. It’s arguably been the worst season statistically of Mahomes’ illustrious career. He was off the boil for large portions of the regular season and has not blown away opponents in the post-season.
Instead, he has been clutch under pressure, making key throws when needed and limiting his mistakes.
Mahomes was named Super Bowl 57 MVP after throwing for just 182 yards, although he was on point with three touchdowns. Without a stellar wideout, it has been Mahomes and Travis Kelce running the show on offence.
If the 49ers can create pressure and force him away from Kelce it could be a long evening for the Chiefs and their quarterback. He is the best for a reason and can counteract the best defences. Backing Mahomes is never a bad option to take with an MVP bet.
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Mr Irrelevant to Super Bowl MVP?
The 49ers selected Brock Purdy with the final pick of the 2022 Draft, known as Mr Irrelevant.
Now 22 months later, San Francisco will be looking to him to emulate Joe Montana and Steve Young by leading the franchise to the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Purdy is not in the class of Mahomes, but he has been effective for Kyle Shanahan’s men.
He threw 31 touchdowns in the regular season and only 11 interceptions. His performances in big games could be a concern, having struggled against the Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers did go behind in both the Divisional Round and Championship Game before Purdy and company rallied.
The 24-year-old is not going to dazzle like Mahomes, but he can take encouragement from the fact that less heralded players such as Eli Manning and Nick Foles have outduelled a legendary player in the past to win both the Super Bowl and MVP.
It’s certainly worth bearing in mind before placing your wager with betting apps.
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Offensive weapons to steal the show?
Only seven running backs have won Super Bowl MVP and Christian McCaffrey will be aiming to end a 26-year drought in Super Bowl 58. Denver Broncos’ Terrell Davis was the last running back to win the award in the 1998 season.
McCaffrey is one of the most talented players in the league and has already put the 49ers on his back in the post-season, scoring two touchdowns in both the Divisional Round and NFC Championship Game.
He can expose the Chiefs’ weakness against the running game and he could be the value bet for wagering on Super Bowl MVP.
The attention in Super Bowl week is on Kelce for reasons other than his play on the field. But, he could become the first tight end in Super Bowl history to win MVP.
Kelce put on a first-half clinic against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, catching 11 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown.
In the Chiefs’ previous three appearances in the Super Bowl, Kelce has been a force. He has 22 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns, although his best performance came in their defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
There have been 25 non-quarterback recipients of the MVP award and Kelce has the class to join that company.
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Game changing defenders on show
Super Bowls can change with a defensive plan. Malcolm Butler’s goal line interception started the second Patriots’ dynasty, while James Harrison’s 100-yard return prevented Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner from winning a second Super Bowl.
Despite those plays, only 10 defenders have won Super Bowl MVP. Broncos linebacker Von Miller was the last for his destructive performance in Super Bowl 50.
There are plenty of candidates from both teams to make an impact in this game. The 49ers boast Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Chase Young, Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner, who are all capable of game-changing moments.
Equally the Chiefs have their own plethora of talent on defence, including Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, Nick Bolton and La’Jarius Sneed. Defenders tend to be long shot bets for MVP, but picking any of these players could be worth an outside shout.
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Simon Sinclair is an experienced sports journalist, who has written for national publications for football, cricket, NFL and many more. He contributes tips on a wide range of sports for The Independent.