Home » Super Bowl Picks from Covers Experts – Chiefs vs 49ers

Super Bowl Picks from Covers Experts – Chiefs vs 49ers

Covers’ staff of NFL betting brains give their best Super Bowl 58 picks for Sunday’s game, featuring best bets and long shots on Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, Brock Purdy, Usher… and more!

We’re just days away from kicking off Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

There is no shortage of people dissecting the Super Bowl odds and giving their Super Bowl predictions — but it’s now time for the most important NFL picks of all… the official plays from the Covers staff!

We’ve polled our in-house NFL betting experts for their Big Game winner, Super Bowl MVP play, best Super Bowl prop, and favorite long-shot play.

Find out below what direction(s) our crew is going on Sunday.

Super Bowl 58 picks

Click on each writer to see their full analysis.

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Super Bowl expert picks from Covers’ Staff

Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst (@CoversJLo)

The underdog that never feels like an underdog is always a good bet. The Chiefs have more ways to make San Francisco uncomfortable on both sides of the ball and own the edge in two major aspects: Quarterback and coaching.

Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo have the Big Game brains… and Patrick Mahomes always rises to the occasion, especially as an “underdog.”

Joe Osborne, Senior Betting Analyst (@JTFOz)

  • Super Bowl pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+110) bet365
  • MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+140) FanDuel
  • Best bet: Second-half Under 23.5 (-110) FanDuel
  • Favorite long shot: Kyle Juszczyk anytime TD (+1000) BetMGM 

In the biggest game of the year, I’ll happily take the team with the better quarterback, the better big-game head coach, and the better defense… which also happens to be in much better form right now. The 49ers got a lot of breaks just to get here against the Packers and Lions while the Chiefs look far removed from the version of the team we saw during the regular season.

I expect Kansas City’s defense to continue to dominate as we’ve seen during the playoffs so far, where they’re allowing just five yards per play against some pretty stiff competition. While the Chiefs’ offense won’t easily be able to go up-and-down the field vs. the 49ers, I trust Patrick Mahomes more than Brock Purdy to come up with big plays in big moments and lead KC to another Super Bowl victory.

Josh Inglis, Betting Analyst (@Covers_josh)

  • Super Bowl pick: San Francisco 49ers (-125) DraftKings
  • MVP: Deebo Samuel (+3300) FanDuel
  • Best bet: George Kittle longest reception o20.5 yards (-115) FanDuel
  • Favorite long shot: Both teams to score a TD on first drive (+1500) FanDuel 

Kittle is 7-2 to the Over on this longest reception prop over his last nine games and his number for the Super Bowl is three yards shorter than it was vs. Detroit. It helps too that it’s an indoor game and Bill Vinovich’s officiating crew is one of the lowest penalty-throwing groups in the league.

As for my long shot, this play is as short as +1,000 at some other operators and I’d be happy to bet these as singles at +220 or better. San Fran is one of the best opening drive TD teams in football, hitting at a ridiculous 55% heading into last week’s game and scoring on 10 of their 18 first drives before that game.

The Chiefs are also elite at scoring on their first drive, especially in the postseason where they have scored a TD in six of their last eight opening possessions. They’ve also scored on eight straight playoff first drives.

Covers Super Bowl 58 betting tools

Rohit Ponnaiya, Betting Analyst (@Covers_Ro)

  • Super Bowl pick: San Francisco 49ers (-125) DraftKings
  • MVP: Christian McCaffrey (+475) DraftKings
  • Best bet: Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110) bet365
  • Favorite long shot: Christian McCaffrey 125+ rush yards (+320) bet365

The Chiefs have a strong pass defense but they’ve struggled against the run, which is bad news against a Kyle Shanahan-coached offense… that also has the league’s best running back in McCaffrey, who is offering great value on his alt-rushing total to hit 125+ yards on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, San Francisco’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing will allow multiple defenders to drop back into coverage and prevent big plays from Kansas City. Mahomes might be the best QB in the world but despite the emergence of Rice and Kelce at tight end, the Chiefs don’t have quite as many weapons as the Niners. Back the Niners to win a competitive game, covering the short 2-point spread with the Under also cashing.

Brandon DuBreuil, Head of Content (@CoversBDB)

  • Super Bowl pick: San Francisco 49ers (-125) DraftKings
  • MVP: Brock Purdy (+230) BetMGM 
  • Best bet: Purdy Over 12.5 rush yards (-108) FanDuel
  • Favorite long shot: Kyle Juszczyk anytime TD (+1000) BetMGM 

I’ve been betting Over on Purdy’s rushing yards total all playoffs, with the number closing at 5.5 and Purdy rushing for totals of 14 (Green Bay) and 48 (Detroit). It’s now 12.5 and happens to be one of the biggest “sharps vs squares” prop markets on the board.

I know of multiple professional bettors on the Under (and even some on alt-Unders), while BetMGM is reporting that 90% of bettors are on the Over 12.5. I almost always want to be on the sharp side, but I’m OK betting with the public here due to the simple fact that Purdy runs more in big games and against high-pressure pass rushes like the Chiefs. As Jason Logan points out in his Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions piece:

Purdy isn’t known for his mobility, but in games against high-pressure pass rushes he’s had to run for his life. Purdy had his biggest rushing efforts against aggressive defenses — 13 yards vs. Tampa Bay, 16 yards vs. Cincinnati, 17 yards vs. Minnesota, 17 yards vs. Pittsburgh — and showed he can make plays with his legs in the NFC title game with 48 yards vs. Detroit’s top pressure pass rush.

My favorite longshot play on the board is a Kyle Juszczyk touchdown at +1,000 (BetMGM). The 49ers always seem to get him a touch in big games (three touches in the NFC Championship game) and he’s often on the field in goalline packages, resulting in two receiving touchdowns for him this season.

Jared Hochman, Content Operations Manager (@JLHoch)

  • Super Bowl pick: San Francisco 49ers (-125) DraftKings
  • MVP: Brock Purdy (+230) BetMGM 
  • Best bet: Jauan Jennings o13.5 receiving yards (-110) bet365
  • Favorite long shot: “U Don’t Have to Call” first halftime song (+4800) FanDuel

One of the 49ers’ biggest advantages is their depth of quality pass-catchers, and while the attention — both from bettors and the Chiefs’ talented secondary — will be on Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle, that leaves a good opportunity for Jauan Jennings to sneak in a reception or two and hit the 14-yard mark.

It’s a number he’s topped in six of his seven games this season when he’s played at least 40% of the offensive snaps, and considering he’s made at least one amazing catch in each of San Fran’s two postseason games (and playing 63% and 42% of the snaps), I like his chances to make a couple key plays on Sunday.

As for my long-shot play… I mean, this song is an absolute banger. Beyond my nostalgia of getting ready for school dances to this tune (which is, ironically, about getting ready to party), it’s got the requirements to be an opening song: A steady, fun, and upbeat sample that will get heads bobbing and primed for the half-time performance — but it’s not so big that it has to be saved for the climax of the show, and considering it’s a whopping 48/1 to be the opener… that’s too good of a price for me not to sprinkle.

Covers Super Bowl player spotlights

Robert Criscola, NFL contributor (@itsgood2beking)

Aiyuk, who is one of the NFL’s most explosive players, trailed only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb in terms of 20+ yard receptions in the regular season, was second to only George Pickens in yards per catch, and also ranked in the Top 3 in yards per target, yards per reception, and yards per team pass attempt.  He has cleared his this longest catch total in 10 of 18 games overall, including a run of 9-5 to the Over in his last 14 contests.

Part of the reason behind Aiyuk’s explosiveness is the ruthless efficiency of Purdy, who was tops in the NFL in deep ball completion percentage and yards per attempt in the regular season. The Chiefs’ defense has been tough to beat all year, but it was 11th in average depth of target and ninth in air yards allowed per target, so teams are willing to take their chances over the top vs. Kansas City.

With Aiyuk being the Niners’ No. 1 downfield option, his main rival to have the longest catch of the game is Rashee Rice, who is 99th in average target distance. San Francisco was among the best in limiting missed tackles this year, further limiting Rice’s chances to beat Aiyuk for longest grab of Super Bowl LVIII.

Super Bowl 58 odds

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