The NFL will retake center stage Sunday night when the Chiefs face the 49ers in Super Bowl 2024.
This will be the fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years for the Chiefs as they seek to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the Patriots in 2005.
And if that’s not enough, this is a rematch from four years ago, when the Chiefs won their first title in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era.
With most of America getting set to tune into the Big Game, sportsbooks have been busy putting together the biggest betting menu of the year.
For example, BetRivers has more than 900 different offerings for Sunday’s game.
That type of variety, loaded with alternate lines and totals, is particularly inviting for someone looking to try their hand at a same-game parlay (SGP).
Even after careful deliberation, I still wound up with 14 plays I couldn’t leave off my card.
As a result, I’ve put together a brief recap on why each play is a worthy inclusion for this long-shot SGP with 66/1 odds ($10 bet pays out $670).
Chiefs Moneyline (+107)
I trust the experience of Mahomes in this spot, as he’s a perfect 3-0 straight-up (SU) in the postseason as an underdog. Moreover, Reid is 17-5 SU with at least 12 days to prepare for an opponent, compared to 4-3 for 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan.
Alternate total Under 57 points (-400)
There’s always the chance this game turns into a track meet, but if this is the play that beats me then so be it. However, there’s enough insurance in this alternate total that I should be okay with the current number. Even with a more aggressive approach, I project a total closer to 48.5 points.
Chiefs team total Over 20.5 points (-177)
The Chiefs have exceeded this number in eight of their last playoff games, and my model projects Kansas City to be closer to 24 points in this matchup.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-105)
Kelce is almost unstoppable inside the red zone, and Mahomes is comfortable enough to throw to his tight end even when multiple defenders cover him. Kelce has at least three touchdowns in the playoffs after only five in the regular season. He’s also had at least one touchdown in eight of his previous nine playoff games and 10 of his last 12.
Brock Purdy Under 279.5 passing yards (-305)
San Francisco scored 34 points against the Lions and Purdy still finished under 270 passing yards. The Chiefs have a fifth-ranked pass defense based on FTN Fantasy’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. A heavy passing game with Purdy would only work to the Chiefs’ advantage.
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-117)
This play goes back to Mahomes’ experience factor in big games. He’s yet to throw an interception in six straight playoff games. Mahomes is also more likely to operate in the middle of the field with Kelce and avoid some of the deep balls he’s prone to throw due to inconsistent play at the wide receiver position.
Brandon Aiyuk Under 84.5 receiving yards (-305)
The Chiefs’ pass defense will easily be the best Aiyuk has faced this postseason, and he still didn’t crack 70 receiving yards in either game. There simply aren’t enough receiving yards to go around, and Aiyuk is unlikely to be Purdy’s first option.
Travis Kelce Over 49.5 receiving yards (-335)
I can’t envision a scenario where Kelce doesn’t play a big part in the Chiefs’ offense. Against a Ravens team with the best pass defense in the league, he still went off for 11 catches, 116 receiving yards and one touchdown. He’s also had at least 70 receiving yards in all three playoff games this season. Since this play is part of a mega parlay, it’s best to continue to take a conservative approach.
Isaiah Pacheco Under 24.5 receiving yards (-250)
The playoffs are a completely different animal than the regular season, and I just don’t see enough spots here where the Chiefs target Pacheco out of the backfield. In his six playoff games, Pacheco has only exceeded this number once. Mahomes is far from a checkdown quarterback and is more likely to go for a bigger play than simply dumping the ball off to a back.
Justin Watson Under 34.5 receiving yards (-385)
This prop is all about usage for me, as Watson played fewer than 50 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps this season. He hasn’t gone over 20 receiving yards in his last two postseasons, and he’s simply not high enough on the depth chart to have a more significant impact.
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-286)
I’m all in on Kelce’s receiving props if you haven’t guessed it by now. Kelce exceeded this reception prop in five of his last six playoff games. With the extra week of preparation, I trust Reid will draw up some new wrinkles to get his tight end the ball.
Ready to start your Super Bowl 2024 betting?
Christian McCaffrey Over 69.5 rushing yards (-315)
If the Chiefs have a soft underbelly on defense, it would be their ability to stop the run. Kansas City’s run defense is 27th in DVOA, and McCaffrey is averaging 94 rushing yards this postseason. If the Ravens had been more patient with their rushing attack, we could be looking at a completely different Super Bowl matchup.
Isaiah Pacheco Over 49.5 rushing yards (-315)
In two playoff games, the 49ers allowed 318 rushing yards, with the opposing team’s lead rusher racking up at least 93 yards on the ground. I expect both teams to have success running the ball, and Pacheco has rushed for at least 68 yards in all three postseason games.
Deebo Samuel Over 2.5 rushing attempts (-162)
This prop might be my favorite on the board because Samuel represents a wild-card option for Shanahan as a possible game-changer. Samuel registered at least three carries in seven of his last eight playoff games. Had he not gotten injured against the Packers, he likely would’ve kept that streak alive.
Pick: 14-leg same-game parlay (+6600, BetRivers)