The Mavericks are leaky on the perimeter, hobbled, and bringing new pieces into the fold. Add it all up and our NBA picks the Thunder attack will storm Dallas this afternoon.
If dynamic one-on-one scoring is your thing, it doesn’t get much better than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic — so buckle up for fireworks this afternoon as the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Dallas Mavericks.
The 35-16 Thunder are taking a run at the No.1 seed in the West this season and it’s telling that they enter as road favorites in the latest NBA odds. The visitors had started February with consecutive wins before a 124-117 loss to the Utah Jazz on Tuesday.
The Mavericks have largely weathered the injury storm, even with Doncic and Kyrie Irving sharing the floor in just 25 of their 52 games. Dallas has won three in a row, including a 122-108 victory over the New York Knicks behind Luka’s 39-point explosion, but remains in the play-in zone.
Get the lowdown on this Saturday matinee with our Thunder vs. Mavericks free NBA picks for Saturday, February 10.
Thunder vs Mavericks odds
Thunder vs Mavericks predictions
The Thunder are still sitting on a treasure chest of draft picks, but SGA & Co. aren’t waiting around for splashy deals down the road. OKC is ready to win now — and most of the magic comes from a potent offense that’s averaging 120.8 ppg and ranks second in field goal percentage and third in 3-point percentage.
The Thunder have hit the team total Over in 30 of their last 48 contests, and I’m riding with the OKC offense again here against a Mavericks defense that’s ill-equipped to slow down the visitors’ backcourt.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be on a lot of MVP ballots, but this is no one-man show. OKC has a well-balanced mix of scoring threats, and the deadline-day addition of Gordon Hayward should add extra playmaking to the second unit.
The Thunder knocked down 51% of their triples in the loss to Utah this week, and five players ended up with double-digit points in the double-OT victory over the Toronto Raptors last weekend.
It’s reasonable to expect the Dallas defense to dip further after trading Grant Williams, and with Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum sidelined, and a hungry, young Thunder team is poised to feast this afternoon.
My best bet: Thunder team total Over 121.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Thunder vs Mavericks same-game parlay
With both Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren in the running for end-of-season awards, it’s hardly surprising that a terrific Jalen Williams season is going slightly under the radar. But I’m happy to jump on a points prop line that feels a little light for a player who’s reached 20 points in his last three games.
The Thunder missed Williams during a recent three-game absence, but he returned in style with 26 points against the Jazz on 10-for-18 shooting. I don’t trust Dallas’ perimeter defense to hold up this afternoon, and that makes the Over on Williams’ points prop extra appealing.
I’m also grabbing an SGA prop for my SGP. He’ll get his share of shots, but he’s also been happy distributing lately. That muddies the props market a little, so instead I’m targeting his rebounds total.
Gilgeous-Alexander, one of the league’s better guards on the glass, had nine rebounds against Toronto and he finished January with seven boards in back-to-back outings. I see him chipping in again this afternoon, and there should be long rebounds up for grabs with the Mavericks shooting the second-most 3-pointers in the league (40.6).
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Thunder vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
The Thunder are earning the sportsbooks’ trust, and they’re road favorites here even against this free-scoring Dallas backcourt. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 71 points against the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday, but the questions will always come at the defensive end.
OKC is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams and has already won in Dallas this season, with a 126-120 victory back in early December in a game that Kyrie missed.
The Thunder served up a dud in their last early weekend contest, with an embarrassing loss to the lowly Detroit Pistons two weeks ago, but I expect the visitors to be dialed in here.
There’s good reason to be cautious about jumping on the Dallas bandwagon. Though Jason Kidd’s men have strung together three straight victories, two of those wins came against injury-hit rosters — the Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers — and they’re 1-4 in their last five home games. The Mavericks will also be trying to slot newcomers P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford into their system.
The Over has been a winning ticket in the Thunder’s past three contests, and I’ve already picked the visitors’ offense to keep humming. While the hosts have cashed in the Under in four of their last five outings, I see both defenses struggling this afternoon.
A total Over/Under north of 240 is hefty, but there’s enough shot-making on these two rosters to turn this into a shootout. Both teams sit in the Top 10 in ppg, and OKC has allowed over 120 points in consecutive games after finishing January in stingy defensive form.
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Thunder vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Mavericks have hit the first-half Over in 26 of their last 37 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Mavericks.
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Thunder vs Mavericks game info
|American Airlines Arena, Dallas, TX
|Saturday, February 10, 2024
|3:00 p.m. ET
Thunder vs Mavericks latest injuries
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