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What Are The Odds Of A Missed Field Goal In The Super Bowl?

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Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers is expected to be a close game. Most U.S. sportsbooks have the spread at either 2 points or 2.5 points in favor of the 49ers, meaning there’s a good chance the game could be decided by a field goal.

With both teams evenly matched on paper, the outcome may come down to which side gets a better performance from its kicker. The Chiefs appear to have the edge with two-time Super Bowl champ Harrison Butker, who’s playing in his fourth Super Bowl for Kansas City.

While Butker has been stellar for the Chiefs since debuting in 2017, he’s always found another level in the postseason. He’s made 28 of 32 field goals in the postseason (5-for-6 in Super Bowl) and 61 of 64 extra points (9-for-9 in Super Bowl)

San Francisco, on the other hand, is relying on rookie kicker Jake Moody, who they selected in the third round of the 2023 Draft. Moody has looked shaky in his first postseason, missing a field goal in each of his first two games.

Given Moody’s struggles, there’s a decent chance we could see a missed field goal in the Big Game on Sunday. Let’s examine the odds of either kicker missing the uprights, as well as a brief history of missed kicks in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Missed Field Goal Odds

Many sportsbooks are offering hundreds of prop bets for the Big Game, including kicking props. BetMGM Sportsbook has an entire section dedicated to field goal props.

In fact, you can even wager on the exact method of how the game’s first shanked field goal will occur (assuming there is one):

  • Wide Right: -120
  • Wide Left: +125
  • Hit Right Upright: +1200
  • Hit Left Upright: +1400
  • Kick Blocked: +1400
  • Short: +1600
  • Hit Crossbar: +2000

Wide right is favored and is the only outcome with minus odds, followed by wide left.

As you can see, the chances of a “doink” – where the ball hits one of the uprights or the crossbar – are considerably longer with plus odds. A kick falling short is also considered unlikely, as the game will be played indoors and both kickers have the leg to make field goals from 50-plus yards.

Both teams have strong defenses, so a blocked kick (+1400) is possible.

Moody is 3-for-5 on field-goal attempts this postseason and is 24-for-30 (80%) this season. Butker is a perfect 7-for-7 in these playoffs and 40-for-42 (95%) this season.

If either does miss, he’ll hardly be the first kicker to miss a field goal in the Big Game. Here’s a look at the history of missed field goals in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Missed Field Goal History

Although NFL kickers have improved their distance and accuracy over time, missed field goals in the Super Bowl are still fairly common. After all, kicking with a championship on the line with millions of people watching is incredibly stressful.

Even some of the best kickers in NFL history have made mistakes during the Super Bowl, from Adam Vinatieri (two misses in Super Bowl 38) to Stephen Gostkowski (one miss in back-to-back Super Bowls).

Last Kicker to Miss a Super Bowl Field Goal

That would be Butker, who missed one of his two field-goal attempts last year in Super Bowl 57 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

With the score tied at 7-7 and 2:32 remaining in the first quarter, Butker had a chance to give the Chiefs their first lead of the game. Instead, he clanged his 42-yard attempt off the left upright in the latest example of a Super Bowl “doink.”

Fortunately for Butker, his miss wasn’t costly. Butker redeemed himself with a 27-yard chip shot with 11 seconds left to ice the game and give Kansas City a 38-35 victory.

Who Has Missed the Most Super Bowl Kicks?

This dubious distinction belongs to Dallas Cowboys kicker Efren Herrera, who missed three of his five field-goal attempts in Super Bowl 12 against the Denver Broncos.

Herrera started out well by making his first two attempts, but it was all downhill from there. All three of his misses came in the second quarter as he missed a 43-yarder, a 32-yarder and a 44-yarder to end the half.

Fortunately for Herrera, the Cowboys still led 13-0 at halftime and prevailed easily, coasting to a 27-10 victory in Herrera’s only career Super Bowl appearance. Despite his poor performance, he still received a Super Bowl ring.

It was a fitting conclusion to a poor season for Herrera, who made only 18 of his 29 field-goal tries during the regular season (62.1%). Not surprisingly, he was traded the following offseason to the Seattle Seahawks.

Nine players have missed two field goals in one Super Bowl, but Herrera’s performance stands alone.

Shortest Missed Field Goal in Super Bowl History

Rich Karlis kicked barefoot during his NFL career, which led to some erratic performances.

That included Super Bowl 21, when Karlis and the Broncos squared off against the New York Giants. Karlis missed two of his four field-goal attempts, including a 23-yard attempt in the second quarter that would have put Denver ahead 13-7. It’s the shortest missed field goal in Super Bowl history.

Karlis missed another try at the end of the first half, this time from 34 yards. The Giants only trailed by one entering the second half and were able to rally, storming back to a 39-20 victory.

The lesson, as always, is that you should probably wear cleats when attempting the biggest kicks of your life.

Most Famous Missed Field Goal in Super Bowl History

Buffalo Bills fans can tell you all about this one. It even has a special name – “47 Wide Right.”

With eight seconds left in Super Bowl 25, the Bills trailed the Giants 20-19. Buffalo was out of timeouts and elected for a 47-yard field goal try to win the game.

Kicker Scott Norwood missed the kick, however, pushing it wide right by about a foot. It didn’t help that holder Frank Reich had the laces facing right, causing the ball to tail in that direction.

The Bills lost by one point in the closest Super Bowl ever played. They would lose the next three Super Bowls as well, only adding to the misery.

Buffalo endured more kicking heartbreak in early 2024 when Tyler Bass missed a potential game-tying field goal against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, joining Norwood in the ranks of playoff goats.

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images