Home » Love Island 2024: Who Will Win And Who Will Be Dumped First?

Love Island 2024: Who Will Win And Who Will Be Dumped First?

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James Leyfield

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Love Island 2024: Who Will Win And Who Will Be Dumped First?

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The Love Island villa is set to open its doors for an 11th series on Monday, and this has sparked early speculation on betting sites about who might find love and scoop the £50,000 prize money.

Maya Jama will head back to Mallorca next week to front the popular dating show, in which 12 Islanders – six lads and six lasses – will arrive in the villa looking for love.

While they will no doubt have their eyes on the prize, the stars also need to try to avoid being the first contestant dumped from the island.

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Early Favourite Ciaran

Ciaran Davies is the early 4/1 favourite on Love Island betting sites to be this year’s Top Man, and he certainly has age on his side.

In Love Island’s first 10 series – excluding this year’s debut All Stars season – since the dating show’s inaugural episode in 2015, 22 year olds have won the programme the most, with five victories, followed by four wins apiece for 21 year olds and 24 year olds.

Love Island Top Male Odds

None of this year’s initial 12 singletons heading into the villa are 22, but surveyor Ciaran has the trends in his favour as he is just 21, and fellow male Islander Sean Stone, who is the 5/1 joint second favourite to be this year’s Top Man, is 24.

In the Top Female market, 24 year old Nicole Samuel and 26-year-old Samantha Kenny are the joint 7/2 favourites, while 24-year-old Harriett Blackmore is 5/1.

Love Island Top Female Odds

Accounts manager Nicole is no stranger to winning, and she could impress the lads with her dance moves in the villa.

She said: “I became a world champion dancer in 2011, not many people know that. I was a professional street dancer.”

Trends Go Against Munveer

Amazingly, since Love Island began in 2015, the first 10 series haven’t featured a winner aged 28 or over.

In this year’s inaugural All Stars series, Molly Smith became the first-ever 29 year old to triumph, when she and Tom Clare, who was 24 at the time, secured victory.

But in Love Island’s main 10 seasons, triumphant series eight couple Davide Sanclimenti and Ekin-Su Culculoglu are the oldest-ever Islanders to win the show, aged 27.

There have also been two winning 26 year olds, series four’s Jack Fincham and series two’s Cara De La Hoyde, and one 25-year-old victor in Cara’s partner Nathan Massey.

However, aside from that every winner has been between the ages of 20 and 24.

That doesn’t bode well for some of this year’s initial 12 Islanders, including 30-year-old recruitment manager Munveer Jabbal.

Who Will Be Dumped First Odds

Contestant Odds Probability
Munveer Jabbal 11/8 42.1%
Harriett Blackmore 6/4 40%
Patsy Field 2/1 33.3%
Ronnie Vint 5/2 28.6%
Ayo Odukoya 3/1 25%
Samantha Kenny 3/1 25%
Jessica White 4/1 20%
Sean Stone 5/1 16.7%
Mimii Ngulube 5/1 16.7%
Sam Taylor 6/1 14.3%
Nicole Samuel 6/1 14.3%
Ciaran Davies 8/1 11.1%

He is the 11/8 favourite on specials betting sites to be the first star dumped from the competition this year.

What’s more, despite being 24 and going against the trends, Harriett Blackmore is 6/4 second favourite to depart the series next.

She has already attracted some unwanted social media controversy, after a past video emerged online of her rowing with some girls on a night out.

Another who could be in the frame to depart the villa include 29-year-old Patsy Field, who is 2/1.

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However, Patsy has her own “very special” superpower, which has “never held [her] back” before and could help her overcome the age trends.

She said: “I’ve got something very special about me which is my disability, it’s a condition I was born with called Erb’s Palsy.

“It doesn’t define who I am, but it makes me a little different, although I’ve learnt to get on with it and it’s never held me back.”

What’s more, if the age trends are anything to go by then 27-year-old semi-pro footballer Ronnie Vint (5/2) could also be in danger.

But he might have some star power in the public vote, because he is best pals with former Sunderland footballer Bradley Dack and his wife, former Love Island series three contestant Olivia Attwood.

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Bombshell Odds-On To Triumph

In nine out of 10 Love Island series, there has been at least one original Islander, who entered on day one, who has gone on to win that season.

Series seven was the exception when bombshells Millie Court and Liam Reardon, who entered on days nine and four respectively, triumphed and shared the £50,000 prize between them.

However, this year could also be the year of the bombshell if comments from Love Island’s executive producer Mike Spencer are anything to go by.

Will A Bombshell Win Love Island Odds

Outcome Odds Probability
Yes 4/9 69.2%
No 9/4 30.8%

Speaking from the villa this week, he told The Sun: “I know who is waiting to come in and I know they are brilliant. Bombshells are bombshells for a reason. There are some great ones coming in.

“I don’t want to hype it up too much, but they are so good. Let’s just talk after week one. I feel confident.”

Strong words indeed from Mike, and bombshells have fared pretty well in the first 10 series, according to the stats.

Out of the 20 winners from the 10 triumphant couples in the first 10 seasons, eight have entered after that season’s launch night episode.

And with Mike’s comments fresh in the market’s mind, it is just 4/9 on betting apps that at least one bombshell wins part of the £50,000 this year, but it’s 9/4 for two of Monday night’s 12 originals to land the prize.

* Reminder: If the operator is not stated next to the odds, then these are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.

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James Leyfield

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