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UK betting sites have shortened their odds on Labour winning a majority at the upcoming general election following a strong first week of campaigning for Sir Keir Starmer.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak announced the July 4 vote in the pouring rain outside 10 Downing Street on May 22 and has endured a string of gaffes since then as the Conservative campaign struggles to get started.
Polling companies are only now releasing the first set of survey results from UK voters since Mr Sunak’s announcement – and it looks as though Labour have “won” the first week of the campaign.
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A YouGov poll shows Labour on 47%, having picked up three points in a week. The Conservatives, by contrast, are now on just 20%.
The latest polling data has caused bookmakers to again shift their odds in favour of a Labour majority as we inch towards the election.
In fact, so strong is Labour’s lead right now that some bookies believe Sir Keir’s impending majority could rival Tony Blair’s from 1997.
We are still five weeks away from vote day but the politics betting sites all point to one outcome.
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UK Election Odds
There are three big markets on betting apps that punters are focusing on heading into this election. They are:
- Government after the next general election betting
- Next UK prime minister betting
- Conservative seats betting
- Labour seats betting
These three markets paint a bad picture for Mr Sunak. It looks practically certain that Labour will form a government and secure a majority.
Meanwhile, speculation is raging over how damaging this vote could be for the Tories.
Here, we examine the three relevant markets that feature next UK election odds:
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Government Odds After The Election
Not a single bookmaker believes the Conservatives have any more than a 4.8% of forming a government after the election.
Their shortest price for a majority is 20/1, while some bookies like Quinnbet have them out at 28/1.
No other party – not even Reform UK – looks interested in touching the Tories right now.
The Conservatives still have a solid voter base but any floating voters, or those who were attracted to the party under Boris Johnson in 2019, have moved to either Labour or Reform.
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Labour, meanwhile, are 1/12 with Boylesports to claim a majority.
Those odds carry a 92.3% probability and highlight just how confined the bookies and punters are in Sir Keir storming this election.
Even the odds of a Labour minority have floated out to 18/1. There appears only one way this election is heading.
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Next UK Prime Minister Odds
If we assume Labour win the upcoming election then Sir Keir Starmer will be the next prime minister.
Vague rumours that the Tories would look to depose Mr Sunak and replace him with a new figurehead before the election were swiftly quashed.
This may be a two-horse race between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak but the odds suggest there’s no contest.
Bookies have started widening their odds on Mr Sunak being PM after the next election. He is now 10/1 to remain in Downing Street.
Betfred made the move to push Sir Keir’s odds to 1/25 recently. Those odds carry a 96.2% probability.
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Conservative Seats Betting
The high expectation of a Labour majority means bookmakers are offering a wider range of other markets too. One such market is betting on seats – particularly the number of seats the Conservatives stand to lose.
Remarkably, Mr Sunak called the election before his party had even confirmed its full list of candidates across each constituency. Cue a scramble to names on the ballot in time.
Meanwhile, more than 76 current Tory MPs are stepping down at this election.
The Conservatives closed the last parliament with 344 MPs. Betfred reckon they’re most likely to lose between 100 and 149 seats, at 15/8. Yet Coral price a ‘201 or more’ loss at the much-shorter price of 4/9.
It looks as though new betting sites can’t make up their minds just how bad it will be for the Conservatives.
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Labour Seats Betting
Betting on the number of Labour seats at this election is the reverse of the Tory market. Here, the general consensus is Sir Keir Starmer will deliver between 400 and 449 MPs at odds of 7/4.
That’s closely followed by 350-399 seats. Remember, Labour only had 206 MPs at the dissolution of Parliament. Double that and they’ll be close to Tony Blair’s cohort of 418 seats in 1997.
The bookies also think there’s a 25% chance that Labour secure between 450-499 seats (3/1). This could happen if Reform pull large numbers of the Tory vote away and leave multiple constituencies open for Labour to win in the first-past-the-post system.
Established 2002
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How The UK Election Works
UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area. There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.
A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.
Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.
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UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner doesn’t need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.
FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.
Pollsters will track the voting throughout election day on July 4 and then release their exit polls at 10pm. Each constituency then begins their count through the night, and a winner is usually announced in the morning.
Frequently Asked Questions
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The next UK election will take place on Thursday 4 July. Voters can apply to cast a postal vote no later than 11 working days before the election, and a proxy vote no later than six working days. Most voters will vote in person on the day.
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UK general elections cannot be held more than five years apart because a single ‘parliament’ has a maximum five-year lifespan. However, a snap election can be held so long as it has the backing of two-thirds of MPs. Prime ministers often call elections in the final year of a parliament, usually in the spring or summer months.
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There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. This was the case in 2022 when first Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss resigned as prime minister.
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Labour look set to win the UK election. Bookmakers believe Labour could be heading towards a landslide victory, while the Conservatives could lose more than half of their current 344 seats. Labour will also challenge the SNP in Scotland, while the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform UK are all looking to make an impact at the expense of the Tories.
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The latest UK politics betting odds back Labour at 1/12 to win the 2024 election. The Conservatives are 16/1 to form a minority government, and 33/1 to secure a majority. Sir Keir Starmer is 1/16 to be the next UK prime minister, while Rishi Sunak is 8/1 to keep his job in Downing Street.
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